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Topic ClosedNat3Midlands Prediction

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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Nat3Midlands Prediction
    Posted: 08 Jul 2009 at 01:04
Ok, copy cat, but it needs doing.

1.   Luctonians
2.   Kenilworth
3.   Newport (Salop)
4.   Peterborough
5.   South Leicester
6.   Hinckley
7.   Ampthill
8.   Bromsgrove
9.   Hereford
10. Luton
11. Longton
12. Kettering
13. Malvern
14. Bedford Athletic

I think the top 4 are virtually interchangeable depending on injuries; not certain our squad at Newport is big enough this season, certainly last season we dropped to sixth place after a fantastic start due to both factors, but things have improved in terms of club re-structuring; I'll revise things after seeing a few pre-season performances.

Newly promoted clubs I've grouped mid-table (alphabetically), based on their results last season and the likely strength of their respective squads in a higher division, they are basically an unknown quantity.

The bottom two retained their places due to the league restructuring, unless they light a fire in their bellies they are not going to survive at this level, particularly based on the poor finishes noted last season.

Interesting to see any other opinions.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2009 at 08:33
Isn't that more-or-less how they finished last season?  In which case, you would want to push Luton further up the list.  They finished 7th in London 1 last time (i.e. about the same as South Leicester), in a much harder division.

Edited by FixSec - 08 Jul 2009 at 09:32
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2009 at 14:38
Harder Division? You surely jest?

You mean to say that you regularly viewed matches in Midlands 1 and London 1 last season? Because that is the only way you could compare the quality between the two, and this would difficult under any circumstances as level 5 doesn't have a requirement that matches are recorded on video, unless you can be everywhere at the same time.

No-one will know anything until the first few games are played in the new season.

As I see they are an unknown quantity and I did state that the teams new to the Midlands this season between places 7 and 10 are included alphabetically, so effectively Luton are placed equally 7th on that basis alone.

We'll see how good Luton are when we see them play, I won't be making a revised observation until then, as it happens I thought South Leicester were unlucky on a few occasions last season, hence pushing them further up my draft prediction.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2009 at 15:33

It is difficult to compare strengths of the relative regional divisions. North 1 has always been considered pretty strong, but Broadstreet defeated Westoe as well as a number of Nat 3 North sides in the cup last season.

There were a few Midlands/London preseason fixtures (which I know aren't a true example of strength)
I know that Peterborough played Old Albanians in pre season last year at home and won
 
Kenilworth travelled away to Jersey and also won
 
Kettering who were towards the bottom of Midlands One lost away at North Walsham....
 
So I'm not sure there's much between the two leagues in fact..
 
I know a few players who have played in both and they echo this...
 
My personal prediction would be as follows:
 
Top 4:
Luctonians (if they keep squad together)
Kenilworth (have heard they have similar squad plus some recruits from National leagues)
Newport
Luton
 
Middle 5:
 
Peterborough (although reckon they'll be up there if they can win away)
Ampthill (this season's dark horses I reckon)
Bedford Ath (have heard they've been recruiting)
Malvern (form team of second half of last season)
Bromsgrove
 
Bottom 5:
Kettering
South Leicester
Hinckley
Longton
Hereford
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Jul 2009 at 17:36
Originally posted by Wireless Wireless wrote:

Harder Division? You surely jest?

Hmmmmm

Apparently Luton seemed pretty desperate to come back this season, even given that there's more travelling in the Midlands I doubt that they were driven by the sight seeing opportunities

The gulf between the top 3 and the bottom 3 would appear to be much narrower in L&SE

Ampthill appear to have spent any money they had on their coaching team!
a Freudian slip is when you say one thing but mean your mother
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2009 at 09:04
Wireless, I make my assertion for two reasons:
1. There are a lot more teams in London than in Midlands - and I mean the number of clubs playing in the League Pyramid.  Therefore, I believe that it is much harder for a team to rise to Level 5 in London.
2. There is much more money around London than Midlands.
 
Another way to look at the quality at Level 5: the impact on Level 4.  How many teams win promotion and survive?  It is my belief that Midlands teams that make it to Level 4 tend to come back down again fairly quickly.  If memory serves, Luton, Broadstreet, Bedford Athletic all fairly recently (Loughborough Students seem to be bucking the trend).
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2009 at 09:23
Originally posted by FixSec FixSec wrote:

Wireless, I make my assertion for two reasons:
1. There are a lot more teams in London than in Midlands - and I mean the number of clubs playing in the League Pyramid.  Therefore, I believe that it is much harder for a team to rise to Level 5 in London.

2. There is much more money around London than Midlands.

 

Another way to look at the quality at Level 5: the impact on Level 4.  How many teams win promotion and survive?  It is my belief that Midlands teams that make it to Level 4 tend to come back down again fairly quickly.  If memory serves, Luton, Broadstreet, Bedford Athletic all fairly recently (Loughborough Students seem to be bucking the trend).


FS, there might well be a lot more money in the London than the midlands but a fool and his money are easily parted. Money doesn't have that much national impact at this level - a good player living near Wem in Shropshire isn't going to upsticks and move to London for an extra £50 a game, he'll play for a more local club.

The number of players might be a talking point, but again a morass of players at level six doesn't necessarily mean that their will be more and better players available to level 5. In fact, there is an argument to say that fewer players can benefit more from better coaching and facilities. A trip to Luctonians or Broadstreet's grounds is an eye opener for many city boys who are used to clearing dog turds and syringes from their pitches before they play. Both are well run sustainable clubs with a very impressive commitment to local youth rugby and with the right combination of coaches, facilities ambition and a couple of quid are very capable of attracting players equal to the capitals fat wallet wavers

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jul 2009 at 14:37
Originally posted by champion champion wrote:

...  Money doesn't have that much national impact at this level - a good player living near Wem in Shropshire isn't going to upsticks and move to London for an extra £50 a game,
I was not suggesting that. 
Originally posted by champion champion wrote:

he'll play for a more local club.
Indeed.  Such as any of the 100+ clubs that are within 10 miles of Sutton & Epsom for example?  If they have the money (and I do not know any such thing) S&E would be able to attract players from any of these clubs.  Not just cherry picking the best players from the lower levels, but also players who do not make it at local clubs at a higher level.  Of course, they would also be competing with some of these 100+ clubs who may also have money to spend...


Edited by FixSec - 09 Jul 2009 at 14:38
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2009 at 01:36
Looking at the Number of National 2 North Clubs in the Midlands Region, I'll accept an argument that with only four clubs hailing from the Midlands in National 2 North, it would appear that the North provides better quality players than the Midlands. Not having National 2 South pinned on Google Earth I am unable to make a visual comparison of the South West with London and SE.

However, looking at National 1 the domination of London and SE is just not there, the South West limps in with just two sides, and the Midlands & London and SE level peg it at four sides each, while the North run away with it, having six teams at Level 3. This denies your suggestion of there being a domination of quality in Rugby in London and SE.

It rather suggests that despite the numbers of teams in the London and SW, that quality might have an issue in rising to the top.

In the Championship, the Midlands dominates, in the Premiership, we mainly share the table with London again.

Can't see your argument producing the goods here, but then I'm missing some data.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2009 at 08:50
Originally posted by Wireless Wireless wrote:

Looking at the Number of National 2 North Clubs in the Midlands Region, I'll accept an argument that with only four clubs hailing from the Midlands in National 2 North, it would appear that the North provides better quality players than the Midlands. Not having National 2 South pinned on Google Earth I am unable to make a visual comparison of the South West with London and SE.
10 London & SE, 6 South West.

Originally posted by Wireless Wireless wrote:

However, looking at National 1 the domination of London and SE is just not there, the South West limps in with just two sides, and the Midlands & London and SE level peg it at four sides each, while the North run away with it, having six teams at Level 3. This denies your suggestion of there being a domination of quality in Rugby in London and SE. 
"domination"?  No, I am not suggesting any such thing.  I was merely asserting that Nat 3 London is stronger than Nat 3 Midlands.

Originally posted by Wireless Wireless wrote:

It rather suggests that despite the numbers of teams in the London and SW, that quality might have an issue in rising to the top.

In the Championship, the Midlands dominates, in the Premiership, we mainly share the table with London again.

Can't see your argument producing the goods here, but then I'm missing some data.
The higher up the pyramid, the less teams so the statistics get less reliable.  Data here (2009/10 season):
Premiership North 3
Premiership Midlands 3
Premiership London 4
Premiership SW 2
Championship North 2
Championship Midlands 5
Championship London 1
Championship SW 4
National 1 North 6
National 1 Midlands 2
National 1 London 4
National 1 SW 4
National 2 North 12
National 2 Midlands 4
National 2 London 10
National 2 SW 6
Total North 23
Total Midlands 14
Total London 19
Total SW 16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jul 2009 at 17:39
Back to the original topic, the OP's placing of Bedford Ath may be understated as someone mentioned (a lot further up the thread) as I heard they had new funds and they appear to have recruited former Coventry back row Henri Rheeders.

He started last season at wealthy Jersey combining that with being a golf professional I understand. And that sounds a situation you would need a good offer to give up but I don't know the real details.

We play them pre-season so will learn more then.

Oh and kenilworth is now virtually a Rugby Lions old boys club so I will be looking out for them to overturn their very near miss last season when and end of season defeat by Luctonians cost them a shot at promotion.


Edited by hammer - 10 Jul 2009 at 17:43
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