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CharlieP View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Promotion/Relegation 2013
    Posted: 10 Mar 2013 at 19:45
It's that time of year again when we try and figure out who's going to be in which league next season...  Five Level 5 sides are already doomed:

NB The graphic shows where teams will be relegated to initially - Level Transfer could change this!



Also on the critical list are:

National 1: Cambridge (20 points behind 13th with 7 to play), Sedgley Park (16 with 7 to play)

National 1 North: Huddersfield (25 with 7 to play), Stockport (17 with 7 to play)

National 2 South: Barking (30 with 7 to play)

National 3 Midlands: SKiwifruithorpe (13 points off 11th with 4 to play)

National 3 North: Kendal (17 with 4 to play)

National 3 South West: Oxford Harlequins (18 with 4 to play)

Promotion will take longer to be decided!


Edited by CharlieP - 11 Mar 2013 at 10:19
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taniwha View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2013 at 21:27
Its the relegations from N2 that have a big (biggest?) influence on N3 leagues. I would reckon that N3N is going to get three relegations (Westoe, Stockport, Huddersfield) down from N2N.

That is likely to need a couple of level transfers into N3M. Sandbach?, Lymm?, Burnage?, Bradford?, Billingham?....... Watch this space... Yorkshire in the Midlands ;)
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2013 at 21:29
Err. Billingham is not exactly very close to the midlands.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2013 at 23:12
......but then London Irish Wild Geese from Sunbury are not really in the South West!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 08:57
Originally posted by taniwha taniwha wrote:

Its the relegations from N2 that have a big (biggest?) influence on N3 leagues. I would reckon that N3N is going to get three relegations (Westoe, Stockport, Huddersfield) down from N2N.
That is likely to need a couple of level transfers into N3M. Sandbach?, Lymm?, Burnage?, Bradford?, Billingham?....... Watch this space... Yorkshire in the Midlands ;)
Do you mean Sandal?  Sandbach are already playing in National 3 Midlands thanks to Level Transfer, and are all but mathematically safe from relegation (or promotion).  If three North sides do come down from National 2 North, and the National 3 Midlands runner-up wins the promotion playoff, there will be 17 teams from the Northern Division at Level 5!  Good luck working that one out...


Edited by CharlieP - 11 Mar 2013 at 08:58
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 16:50
Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

National 2 South: Barking (30 with 7 to play)


Barking only have 5 to play and I think they are now relegated.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 16:56
Originally posted by Buck Buck wrote:

Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

National 2 South: Barking (30 with 7 to play)


Barking only have 5 to play and I think they are now relegated.

Indeed, 5 to play and guaranteed bottom spot unless one of their rivals gets hit with a points deduction. People tend to forget that N2S only has 15 sides thanks to Rugby's late departure, so as playing with yourself is frowned upon, it's only 28 games this season.


Edited by RedOrDead - 11 Mar 2013 at 16:57
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 17:32
Originally posted by RedOrDead RedOrDead wrote:

People tend to forget that N2S only has 15 sides thanks to Rugby's late departure


Yes, including yours truly. Confused


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 17:33
CP

As all clubs return to their 'parent' division at season's end Sandbach will have to 'reapply' to be level transferred to the Midlands

I agree that it's very likely and that, being only the second year, they have no option if they are the 'chosen', what's more concerning is the knock on effect, as more 'North' club(s) may have to head to the Midlands. I think Sandbach have enjoyed their sojourn in flat capless land, mind.

Four of the five candidates for relegation from N1 are North clubs, likely two will join Cambridge while the three promoted from level 5 may result in a level transfer South, depending upon Ionians efficiency.

It's possible there'll be room in N3M for one level transfer as the top two have significantly better records than their N3N rivals leading to home advantage in the playoff, not a gimme though. The consequence may be two double level transfers (see Sandbach & Malvern this season) with two North clubs coming to the Midlands and two Midlands clubs going who knows where!

More interesting than some games this season!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 18:16
Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

Originally posted by taniwha taniwha wrote:

Its the relegations from N2 that have a big (biggest?) influence on N3 leagues. I would reckon that N3N is going to get three relegations (Westoe, Stockport, Huddersfield) down from N2N.
That is likely to need a couple of level transfers into N3M. Sandbach?, Lymm?, Burnage?, Bradford?, Billingham?....... Watch this space... Yorkshire in the Midlands ;)
Do you mean Sandal?  Sandbach are already playing in National 3 Midlands thanks to Level Transfer, and are all but mathematically safe from relegation (or promotion).  If three North sides do come down from National 2 North, and the National 3 Midlands runner-up wins the promotion playoff, there will be 17 teams from the Northern Division at Level 5!  Good luck working that one out...
 
No I meant Sandbach, see F.A's post. At the end of the season Sandbach will return to their default location which is N3N. I do however predict that we they will spend another season, probably with Bradford , in N3M. I say Bradford, because I don't think that the RFU will take two teams from Cheshire in any one year (weaken the county bloodline and all that) and so its down to a Southern Yorkshire team to take the trip. There's a level of poetic elegance in Bradford being in the MidlandsTongue
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 18:24
Yes, Sandbach will be "put back" in National 3 North before the LT merry-go-round starts, but it seems pretty certain that they will be first asked to move south unless there are any volunteers.  I thought you might have meant Sandal as you overlooked them in favour of clubs with a much greater latitude! Smile

http://tinyurl.com/n3n12-13
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2013 at 18:31
Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

Yes, Sandbach will be "put back" in National 3 North before the LT merry-go-round starts, but it seems pretty certain that they will be first asked to move south unless there are any volunteers.  I thought you might have meant Sandal as you overlooked them in favour of clubs with a much greater latitude! Smile

http://tinyurl.com/n3n12-13
 
Yes you are correct, I had completely misplaced Sandal in my mind. I'd say that looks very likely.  That's gonna confuse a lot of folks in the Midlands..... Sandal and Sandbach versus Hinkley... Poor old Roscoe struggles with words of more than a single syllable anyway!! ............... Get that beer in Roscoe,  we are coming to getcha... Wink
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 09:18
I think you'll find Derby will be in Mids 1 West, especially if you look at who is likely to be coming up from Mid 2 ( if I'm allowed to mention level 7 on this hallowed forum)Wink
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 09:34
Originally posted by Pie and Peas Pie and Peas wrote:

I think you'll find Derby will be in Mids 1 West, especially if you look at who is likely to be coming up from Mid 2 ( if I'm allowed to mention level 7 on this hallowed forum)Wink
 
That raises an interesting point - as I had to keep explaining last year, the graphic shows what happens before Level Transfer takes place, i.e. all teams are sent into the right league based on their CB and adjustments are then made only if the numbers don't balance.
 
However, the Midlands Division did away with CB-based leagues (e.g. Notts/Lincs/Derbys 1) some time ago in favour of the more prosaic "Midlands 2 West (North)" et al.  Does this mean that teams don't actually get relegated to Midlands 1 West or East depending on their CB (in the way that Yorkshire clubs go into North 1 East and Cheshire sides into North 1 West), but simply to Midlands 1, with the 28 sides getting neatly divided on travelling distance?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 12:39
That raises an interesting point - as I had to keep explaining last year, the graphic shows what happens before Level Transfer takes place, i.e. all teams are sent into the right league based on their CB and adjustments are then made only if the numbers don't balance.
Perhaps then you should show the levelled clubs also transferring back 'home'? Sandbach to N3N, Malvern to Midlands ? Others? Those all ought to be known now. That might be a more accurate view of the starting points?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 13:15
Always in an interesting thread at the business end of the year.  Well done CharlieP for putting it together.  

Just to add another thought to the mix, albeit this will be decided long after the season has finished.  With Rugby Lions applying to return to the RFU league structure, at what level would you expect them to be re-instated?  Level 6/7 maybe?  Or at the bottom of the pile?  The latter I would not like to see tbh..Ermm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 14:19
It will be at the bottom of the pile...if at all.

They have been playing friendlies against 2XVs to show RFU that they are still a viable club and then the RFU will decide whether to readmit them in Midlands 5
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 14:26
Exactly - London Scottish, Richmond, Halifax and (insert clubs here) all had to start again from the bottom...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2013 at 21:04
Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

Promotion will take longer to be decided!


Actually, I just didn't look deep enough - my my reckoning Beverley are already champions of North 1 East, with a 21 point lead over Sheffield and only four games to play.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2013 at 08:43
Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

Originally posted by CharlieP CharlieP wrote:

Promotion will take longer to be decided!


Actually, I just didn't look deep enough - my my reckoning Beverley are already champions of North 1 East, with a 21 point lead over Sheffield and only four games to play.
 
Nor close enough - third-placed Wheatley Hills have one more game in hand, so Beverley still need two more points to seal the deal.
 
If Wheatley Hills pip Sheffield to the play-off place and win, that's another name to throw in the Level Transfer mix...


Edited by CharlieP - 15 Mar 2013 at 08:44
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