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FHLH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FHLH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Feb 2015 at 13:22
Position now Team Points To End Total Position end
1
Henley Hawks
100 30 130 1
3 Taunton Titans 80 29 109 2
2 Dorking 87 21 108 3
4 Bishops Stortford 79 28 107 4
5 Worthing Raiders 75 22 97 5
6 Chinnor 71 21 92 6
7 Cambridge 68 14 82 7
9 Old Elthamians 57 25 82 8
8 Redruth 58 10 68 9
10 Clifton 54 8 62 10
12 Canterbury 46 12 58 11
11 Cornish All Blacks 51 6 57 12
13 Southend Saxons 42 9 51 13
14 Lydney 39 10 49 14
15 Shelford 28 8 36 15
16 Dings Crusaders 21 1 22 16
 
Based on best guess (that's why I don't join the predicition table) and if true means that the Cambridge Shelford fixture will go and at 1,600+ for each match there is a great appetite for the fixture. Solutions on a postcard.
 
 


Edited by FHLH - 23 Feb 2015 at 13:28
"My father told me big men fall just as quick as little ones, if you put a sword through their hearts."
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FEZ ANT PLUCKER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FEZ ANT PLUCKER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Feb 2015 at 13:38
FHLH.... I take it that you expect Taunton to win at Dorking on 7th March as part of their potential remaining points tally. Being 7pts behind D's now, this could be an 11 or 12pt deficit for Taunton to make up, if Dorking win their game against Southend this coming saturday. Me thinks you are very optimistic, but I applaud your loyalty. Anyway..... I thought this was a thread on relegation?? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Feb 2015 at 13:59
Eh! Why does a Cambridge man predicting second place for Taunton constitute loyalty?!?
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FEZ ANT PLUCKER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FEZ ANT PLUCKER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Feb 2015 at 14:32
Ah there you are RorD... hadnt heard from you recently, but there could only be one who spotted my Freudian slip or parapraxis, and sure enough it was you, doing some 'laptop loitering'.....Actually on a slightly funny note I did suffer a parapraxis as I noted FHLH location was 'Ambridge' which made me think of the 'Archers' (not Jeffery Archer of well known Cambridge fame) but you know 'The Archers' of BBC R4, which somehow I thought was fictionally based around Taunton!! How strange and what a plonker I am. Regardless RorD well spotted and so quick to point out. 
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bullwhip griffen View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bullwhip griffen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Feb 2015 at 16:05
I would back Cambridge for 20 more points from 6 games, expect Chinnor to add just 16 points and therefore a close run in for 6th place.
Otherwise FHLH you have done your sums well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sarfender Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Feb 2015 at 16:57
The only thing we can be sure of FHLH is that your final table prediction will not be correct.
 
But you can be sure I hope it is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FHLH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Feb 2015 at 13:05

All that I got from my work was that:

(i) always save a spreadsheet before your system crashes
(ii) we are likely to lose a big earner as keenly watched as Redruth/CAB
(iii) promotion battle will be at 2nd/3rd/4th for the play off place
(iv) relegation battle will be between 13th/14th place
(v) Loyal to Taunton as I took many holidays in Zeal Monochorum which is sort of that area
(vi) Final table will not be correct


Edited by FHLH - 25 Feb 2015 at 13:03
"My father told me big men fall just as quick as little ones, if you put a sword through their hearts."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Feb 2015 at 15:06
Good work FHLH. I haven't looked through each sides remaining fixtures in anywhere near the same depth, but the last time I did in a relegation thread, I threw Southend's name into the relegation mix and was mocked by a few people for doing so - doesn't look like such a bad prediction now. I know that Dings' form is pretty terrible and I certainly wouldn't back them to mount a significant bid for safety, but it would be pretty incredible if they only manage to add a single point to their existing total. Equally 10 points looks a little bit skinny for Lydney. Particularly as both are yet to face Redruth at home!

The difficult thing to factor is the effect that games being crucial for one side and a dead rubber for the other will have. I believe that historically there have been more upsets (teams lower down the table beating teams above them) as the season reaches a close.

I won't go too far O/T by discussing the top end of the table (maybe you would like to create a promotion thread containing the top part of the table), but this looks every bit as interesting as the relegation battle and that's without trying to predict who wins the N vs S play off.

Totally O/T: Ambridge is in Borsetshire, which is apparently between Worcestershire and Warwickshire. It is also what you end up typing if you set your location to Cambridge and miss the "C" off!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedPete Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Feb 2015 at 22:57
Originally posted by FHLH FHLH wrote:

Position nowTeamPointsTo EndTotalPosition end
...




3Taunton Titans80291092







As optimistic as I am, I can't see Taunton getting 29 points out pf a possible 30, with away games at Dorking, Lydney and Launceston! I think we'll do well to finish 3rd.
Schadenfreude - such a big word for something so small-minded
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2015 at 01:46
So start a relevant thread to discuss it RedPete!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FHLH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2015 at 13:01
@RedPete - will redo predictions and see if results are the same then start promotions thread
 
@bullwhip - always hope for best from Cambridge but forecast the worst
 
@RoD - I take your point about dead rubbers / striving to avoid relegation - didn't factor that in. Might do an incremental table to see just where the pressure mounts. Sad, moi?
 
@RoD - now moved house to a better part of town, more interesting O/T thread! As you will have seen from the predictions - "I'm sorry I haven't a clue"


Edited by FHLH - 25 Feb 2015 at 13:17
"My father told me big men fall just as quick as little ones, if you put a sword through their hearts."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 14:52
The question of who will drop out of N2S is now a lot clearer with Dings and Shelford gone, there's now just a scrap to avoid 14th place, with just 5 league points separating current incumbents Canterbury in 14th and Southend in 11th.

The remaining fixtures are as follows:

Southend (51 points)

OEs (A), Canterbury (H), Taunton (A), BS (H), Redruth (A)

CABs (51 points)

Clifton (A), OEs (H), Canterbury (A), Taunton (H), BS (A)

Lydney (46 points)

Canterbury (A), Taunton (H), BS (A), Redruth (H), Shelford (A)

Canterbury (46)

Lydney (H), Southend (A), CABs (H), Cambridge (A), Clifton (H)

What does that all mean? I'm not sure! Everyone has matches against fellow strugglers, most must also face sides involved in the promotion dog fight. Could the way the fixtures have worked out be a lifeline for Canterbury? Given their poor away form, I would have to say that Lydney look like favorites for the drop, but if they can get some results against other strugglers (and beat away strugglers Redruth at home) they can certainly get out of jail.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sarfender Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 15:33
Interesting that you have not included Clifton ROD as they could find themselves caught up. There are a number of games in which some points must be picked up by those involved and to a large extent I think it is those games that are the important ones. Yes some of the games involve those at the top but any points picked up here will be a very welcome bonus and losing the basement battles will be very harmful and the crucial element in avoiding the drop.

I am not sure who I would have as favourites for the drop though. Ask me again in acouple of weeks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 16:11
Originally posted by Sarfender Sarfender wrote:

Interesting that you have not included Clifton ROD as they could find themselves caught up. There are a number of games in which some points must be picked up by those involved and to a large extent I think it is those games that are the important ones. Yes some of the games involve those at the top but any points picked up here will be a very welcome bonus and losing the basement battles will be very harmful and the crucial element in avoiding the drop.

I am not sure who I would have as favourites for the drop though. Ask me again in acouple of weeks.

You've got me bang to rights Sarfender, I logged in to edit my post and say that it was only laziness that led me to discounting Clifton, but you beat me to it! Not being a fan of chicken counting, I should have gone as far up the table as Redruth! Here's Clifton's run in:

Clifton (53 points)

CABs (H), Cambridge (A), Worthing (A), OEs (H), Canterbury (A)

They have an eight point start over Lydney and Canterbury, but given their form, I'd say it's fair to throw their name into the hat - I would put them as marginal favourites against CABs and OEs at home. Fail to win both of those and they could find themselves needing a win on the last day of the season to be assured of their place in the league next season.

Have Clifton suffered with injuries or unavailability? The side that visited Redruth back in September looked good for the solid mid table showing that they were looking good to produce until the end of January. I'm the first to admit that it's tough to judge opponents on one showing, also given the block of tough fixtures that all teams have to face, it's hard to judge form, so maybe I was left with a false impression.

Now we're in March and (most) pitches are getting firmer, will we see the teams whose strengths lie in their backs outdoing the teams whose strength lies with their forwards?


Edited by RedOrDead - 10 Mar 2015 at 16:18
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darth Raider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Mar 2015 at 22:15
Good call on Clifton Sarfender......losing home and away to Lydney has brought them into the mix after what seemed a couple of good results.
The weather and pitch conditions may have a slight effect but to my mind, this time of year is all about motivation.  Struggling sides can achieve apparent miracles when they have to Shocked

While you would think that they had the wherewithall to fix it quickly,  CAB's look like a real candidate to me.  I watched them at our place and could not understand how we lost the away game (that is not unusual though...we are sometimes very poor on the road).  The big defeat at home to Cambridge has not helped.

I just can't see Canterbury or Saxons going down, they seem to have too much about them.  But somebody may well win 12 or more games, get more than 60pts and still get relegated ?  Bizarre.

I think CABs may have lost their Nat1 status with 62 pts ?

I suppose that means that Lydney, Clifton or CABs are for the drop ?  With the least points currently and despite their recent resurgence, I think the Severnsiders are most likely to take that last place.

From the point of view of sheer excitement, this excellent 2015 league competition is going down to the wire.  So many teams involved at both the top and bottom of the table that there are almost NO dead fixtures Smile.   It will be fun to watch....best of luck to all.

 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Intouch Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2015 at 07:30
Would not worry about what happened in Nat 1

LIWG  went down with 63 points from Nat 2 last season on the final day.

The magic number at present is 68 points. 
68 points or more you are safe,but with Canterbury playing Lydney this Saturday if we have an outright result ( 68 was worked out on a 3-3 draw)  that number will drop come Saturday night.




Edited by Intouch - 11 Mar 2015 at 09:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedOrDead Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2015 at 15:33
Originally posted by Darth Raider Darth Raider wrote:

While you would think that they had the wherewithall to fix it quickly,  CAB's look like a real candidate to me.  I watched them at our place and could not understand how we lost the away game (that is not unusual though...we are sometimes very poor on the road).  The big defeat at home to Cambridge has not helped.

I just can't see Canterbury or Saxons going down, they seem to have too much about them.  But somebody may well win 12 or more games, get more than 60pts and still get relegated ?  Bizarre.

I think CABs may have lost their Nat1 status with 62 pts ?

CABs were demoted from N1 with 44 points (they would have survived if it weren't for a 20 point deduction for phoenixing in the off season). That year, Redruth went down in 14th with 62 points, which was the highest total for a relegated side until LIWG went down with 63 last season. Both were examples of competitive leagues leading to a more even distribution of points than is usually seen, which we appear to have again this season.[/QUOTE]

At this time of year it's always interesting to look back on pre season prediction threads. In my first post in this season's version, I threw CABs in as a slightly left field choice for demotion on the basis that their front row is ageing, they only had one recognised second row, they would miss the excellent Rawlings brothers badly and that they had lost some good backs. Looking at the team that they fielded last weekend, these potential problems appear to have manifested themselves - last weekend, half of the CABs starting pack were in their first National League season and the back line was reshuffled with Shepherd making a rare start at scrum half.

It may be that the outcome of the season for CABs is determined by their luck with injuries (both bringing players back quickly and not sustaining any injuries in key positions).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FEZ ANT PLUCKER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2015 at 21:18
Originally posted by RedPete RedPete wrote:

Originally posted by FHLH FHLH wrote:

Position nowTeamPointsTo EndTotalPosition end
...




3Taunton Titans80291092







As optimistic as I am, I can't see Taunton getting 29 points out pf a possible 30, with away games at Dorking, Lydney and Launceston! I think we'll do well to finish 3rd.

After watching Taunton at Dorking last week, I wouldnt put it beyond Taunton, and maybe you should be optimistic Red Pete... The only obstacle I see for Titans in their games against Lydney and CAB's, is regaining the same level of motivation they had at D's. Have Titans recently recruited any new players.??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darth Raider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 2015 at 22:30
Looking back on Foghorn's original predictive table (admirable and has generated all this discussion), I think he may have underestimated the motivation of the relegation threatened clubs.

I think all of the points totals of the clubs positioned in places 10-14 may be underweighted and if they are, then the clubs in positions 2-4 are overweighted.  We will see.

After the season we have witnessed so far, it would probably be something of a surprise if there are not one or two twists and turns before the end Shocked.

I also suspect that the prediction of Hawks taking 6 x 5pt wins may be inaccurate.  Practically they probably need only two wins of any sort to become champions and may not be quite as focused after their objective is achieved ? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RedPete Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Mar 2015 at 22:16
Yes, I know it's off topic but I'm responding to a direct question.

Originally posted by FEZ ANT PLUCKER FEZ ANT PLUCKER wrote:

After watching Taunton at Dorking last week, I wouldnt put it beyond Taunton, and maybe you should be optimistic Red Pete... The only obstacle I see for Titans in their games against Lydney and CAB's, is regaining the same level of motivation they had at D's. Have Titans recently recruited any new players.??

15-Nov-14            07-Mar-15
Gary Kingdom      15 Gary Kingdom
Nicholas Mason    14 Jack Claydon
Freddie Fraser    13 Nicholas Mason
Matthew Tichias   12 Freddie Fraser
Jack Faulkner     11 Jack Faulkner
Toby East         10 Toby East
Lewis Webb         9 Lewis Webb
Kieran Ball        1 Jake Woolmore
Jonathan Gatford   2 Jonathan Gatford
George Cooper      3 George Cooper
George Fleming     4 George Fleming
Benjamin Turner    5 Benjamin Turner
Daniel Lee         6 Daniel Lee
James Fleming      7 James Fleming
Brett Harvey       8 Brett Harvey
Alexander Spurdle 16 Alexander Spurdle
Mark Manton       17 Mark Manton
Marshal Cormack   18 Daniel Ogden
Paul Davis        19 Samuel Skinner
James Bath        20 Thomas Popham

I would say the inclusion of Jack Claydon, Jake Woolmore, Sam Skinner into the Taunton squad last Saturday made it stronger than the one that played when losing at home to Dorking.  All three have been with us for a couple of years. Jack has just returned from injury. Jake has played all season but was injured for the home fixture at Hyde Park. Sam has just returned to the squad following playing for the Exeter Braves and is currently in the England U20 Six Nations squad.
The loss of Marsh Cormack left us short of second row cover.
When Dorking played us at home it was a great all-round team performance, but in attack, I thought that Matthew Noble and Cameron Pimlow were stand out players so they would have been missed last Saturday. I also note you only had four replacements available last Saturday, that would not have helped your cause either.
Best of luck next Saturday

Schadenfreude - such a big word for something so small-minded
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